Copper Prices in 2026 from Public Data: What the Monthly Series Show for Scrap Sellers

The Three Series and Why We Show Changes Only

The World Bank and IMF series are derived from exchange prices, which are licensed. ScrapBasin does not republish exchange prices, so we show those series as percentage changes and as an index rebased to December 2025 = 100, not in dollars. The source files carry the levels for anyone who wants them. The BLS series are indexes in the first place.

The IMF series lags the World Bank's by two months and, for the months they share, moves almost identically: both show a rise of about 14.9% from December 2025 to July 2026. We use the World Bank series for the latest months and the IMF series as a cross-check.

Refined Copper in 2026

The rise was concentrated in two bursts. The December 2025 average was already 18% above September 2025 (index 100.0 against 84.7), and January 2026 added another 10.4%. After a dip to March, the average climbed again from May. The rebased monthly path is in the chart and in the CSV published with this note.

Did Scrap Follow?

Three readings follow from the table.

Over five years, scrap and refined moved together. No. 1 and No. 2 copper scrap indexes rose 55% to 58% from August 2021, against 53% for refined copper. Copper scrap remains a copper price with a discount.

Over shorter windows the gap moves around. In the twelve months to August 2026 the No. 1 index rose by 0.86 times the refined move and the No. 2 index by 1.10 times. Since December 2025, all four scrap indexes rose by more than refined. Much of that is timing: the No. 1 index stood unusually high relative to refined in August 2025 (92.2 against 82.1 on the December 2025 base), which flatters the refined comparison over twelve months and depresses it since December. A single month's index is a noisy anchor.

The latest months will change. The BLS marks May to August 2026 as preliminary and revises indexes for up to four months. FRED's archive shows that the No. 1 copper scrap index for March 2026 was first shown at 690.8 and now stands at 744.0, a revision of 7.7%. Treat the August figures as provisional until the January 2027 release.

What the indexes cannot tell you is the level of your price. They measure the change in prices received by a sample of US sellers, across terms and locations that are not yours. For UK sellers, HMRC export unit values give a second check: see our note on UK copper scrap exports Publication held.

What This Means for Your Contract

The effect of a 22.8% move depends entirely on how your price is set. Our guide to how copper scrap prices are set Publication held explains the bases; here is what 2026 did to each.

Illustrative example. Not a client case. Three sellers each agreed a price equal to 92% of the reference in December 2025, when the reference stood at 100 on our rebased scale. By September 2026 the reference stood at 122.8.

The fixed-price seller is now receiving about three quarters of the reference instead of 92%, a share 17.1 points lower than agreed. On 10 tonnes a month, if the reference were $10,000 per tonne in December, that gap would be worth 10 x 10,000 x (1.228 x 0.92 minus 0.92) = $20,976 a month by September. The figures are invented; the mechanism is not.

If you sell on a percentage or discount basis, check that the reference on your remittance is named and dated and that its movement matches public data in direction. If you sell at a fixed price, the 2026 data is reason enough to ask for a review, or to move to an index-linked basis. Our guide to scrap price indices you can use without a subscription Publication held shows how to write that clause using the BLS series, including how to handle revisions. Grade matters too: if your material is booked as No. 2 rather than No. 1, see bare bright, No. 1 and No. 2 copper Publication held.

What to Watch Next

• 15 October 2026: BLS releases September 2026 producer price indexes (date shown on FRED).
• 3 November 2026: next World Bank Pink Sheet update, adding October 2026.
• Revisions: the May to August 2026 PPI values will be revised up to four months after first publication.

ScrapBasin makes no forecast. The series above describe what has happened, and how much your own price should have moved with it.

Get the Update Each Month

The free monthly Data Note recomputes these series after each BLS release and says, in plain terms, what moved for copper, aluminium, steel and stainless scrap.

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ScrapBasin publishes information. It never buys, sells or brokers metal.